Forex Metal Weekly Newsletter

Market review for 28.03 – 1.04.2011

During themorning trading on Monday the EUR/USD pair traded in the range of  $1,4020-$1,4070. Euro was under pressure due to the influence from the statement of the head of the Philadelphia FRS regarding the necessity of reinforcing the US credit policy. Political instability with the leading German coalition rendered additional pressure on the euro. The US dollar strengthened on Monday morning. The dollar was also supported by the expectations for the strong US economic data later on that week. During the European trading session the dollar rate grew and consolidated.

Japanese yen showed decrease on Monday against the major currencies, since the radioactive contamination risk at the nuclear power plant deceased. Demand for the save-heaven currencies dropped, which pressured the yen as well.  The USD/JPY rate grew to the maximums of Y81.85.

During the American trading session on Monday the market dynamics changed. After the statement of the Jean-Claude Trichet the expectations for the interest rate increase by the ECB reinforced and the euro strengthened. As a result, the EUR/USD pair reached maximums of $1.41. The sterling followed the euro strengthening, and the GBP/USD rate grew to the $1,6000 level.

The EUR/USD pair reached the $1.4149 maximum on Tuesday morning, being supported by the statement of the head of ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet. But the following decrease of the euro was also a result of the decision of Standard & Poor’s to reduce credit ratings of Portugal and Greece. Rating of Portugal was decreased to BBB-. Rating of Greece was reduced to BB-.

The speech of James Bullard supported the greenback, and the trading dynamics changed. The President of the St. Louis FRS commented on Tuesday that normalization of monetary policy would be one of the top priorities this year.  Expectations for the strong US employment release the same week supported the American dollar as well.

On Wednesday the EUR/USD minimum was reached at the $1.4060 level. Member of the ECB’s Executive Board, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi mentioned in his statement that risk of the expanding Euro-zone sovereign debt “should not be called insignificant”. As a result, the euro was pressured. But during the second part of the day the trading dynamics changed. The EUR/USD pair reached maximum during the American trading session at the level of $1.4146. Sterling managed to stabilize and the GBP/USD pair reached the $1.6083 maximum. The released on Wednesday the CBI reported sales for March turned out to be much higher expectations: forecasted -1 against the factual 15.

Australian dollar set a new historical maximum against the US dollar due to the speculations regarding the possibility that the world economy growth would support the demand for the commodities, which play a major role in the Australian export.  On Thursday the Australian dollar continued to strengthen due to the released Retail sales volume increase for 0.5% against the forecasted growth for 0.4%.

Expectations for the publication of the strong German fundamentals supported the euro during the Asian trading session. As a result the EUR/USD pair reached the $1.4180 level. Reinforced expectations for the increase of the interest rate (as a result of the increased Euro-zone inflation today) at the next ECB meeting rendered additional support to the euro. According to the released data, German unemployment decreased for 55K against the expected decrease for 25K. But German retail sales dropped suddenly for 0.3%. The EUR/USD continued to grow and reached the $1.4235 level. Stress-tests that were performed in Ireland showed that 4 Irish banks would need additional financial support. Nevertheless, this fact did not have a negative impact on the euro. The GBP/USD reached maximums at the $1.6150 mark on Thursday as well. Unexpected increase of the Nationwide house prices against the forecasted drop resulted in the growth of the pound.  Greenback was under pressure on Thursday, and decreased against all major currencies. But during the American trading session the US dollar managed to strengthen after the comments of the representative of the FRS, Narayan Kocherlakota, when he supported the forecast that the interest rates would be increased.

On Friday US dollar competitors reached new highs. William Dadly, the president of the New-York FRS, stated that the FRS  would continue to maintain the same monetary policy during a prolonged period of time. As a result, the EUR/USD pair reached the $1.4246 maximum, and the GBP/USD pair grew above the $1.61 mark.


The pair has reached channel line at 1.42557 which is a resistance level. At the same level is Fibonacci 23,6%.  If the pair stays above 1.42557 the pair will rise to 1.44835.

Resistance:  1.44835, 1.47697, 1.50676

Support: 1.41130, 1.37441, 1.33427

Weekly technical analysis for 4.04-8.04


The pair has declined to triangle’s upper border and Moving Average (100) and testing this level for the support. The pair stayed above support 1.59962. It may bring pair to rise to 1.64274. If the pair breaks 1.59962 the pair will decline to 1.57804.

Resistance:  1.64274, 1.68504, 1.72652

Support:  1.59962, 1.52523, 1.48532


MACD convergence may support the pair to start corrections. Resistance is at 0.93264. Support is at 0.91074.

Resistance:  0.93264, 0.96525, 0.99031

Support:  0.91074, 0.88022, 0.85633


The pair has broken upper border of the triangle and aiming to Moving Average (100) at 88.748. But before that the pair needs to break 86.836.

Resistance:  86.836, 90.909, 94.707

Support:  83.330, 80.244, 76.535


The pair is aiming to 1.03847. If the pair stays below 1.03847 the pair may start corrections and may roll back to 1.01873.

Resistance:  1.03847, 1.05810, 1.07806

Support:  1.01873, 1.00031, 0.97889