Daily Forex Analysis by Finexo.com 09/11/2009

The US unemployment situation worsened to levels unseen since 1983 prompting many traders and investors to seek safe-haven shelter in the Dollar. The number of unemployed Americans rose to 10.2%, a .3% increase from expectations and amplified concern that while the economy is showing growth, the employment situation is dire. Government estimates assumed the rate would not reach 10% until 2010 and the stimulus package signed in March was supposed to curtail the level to no more than 8.9%. Meanwhile, the US House of Representatives passed a 1.3 Trillion Dollar health care package, bringing US sponsored health care to all Americans. The contentious legislation is seen as adding to an already irresponsible debt load, making the boom of the past decade seem that much farther to attain.
At the close, the US Dollar was up 1.1% to the Euro to 1.4845, up .11% to the Yen to 89.95, up .24% against the Canadian Dollar to 1.0726, down .18% to the Sterling to 1.6611, up .27% versus the Swiss Franc to 1.0144 and down .45% against the Australian Dollar to .9229.
Chart: EUR/USD

We discussed the weekly pivots earlier this week as key for the USD this week, and the EUR/USD, since crossing above the 1.4825 area pivot on Wednesday, has twice found support in that area, including today. Meanwhile, the recent sell-off wave back below the old high offers a wave setup in which bears are looking for resistance to come in at the usual Fibonacci level suspects at market turnarounds. That 0.764 retracement comes in at around 1.4960 if this 1.4895 area 0.618 Fibonacci can’t hold back the rally. Failure of the 0 .764 level to hold would suggest a full retest of 1.5063 high and perhaps beyond if risk continues to rally and equities take out their recent highs.


Written by Finexo.com