Daily Analysis – 08/10/2009

Euro Dollar

First we would like to draw your kind attention to the ECB rate decision that will come out later today, and to president Trichet's news conference that will follow. The Euro advanced to 1.4761 before retreating back to 1.4682. And with that, 1.4776 became the most important resistance for the short-term, and the key to reach new tops. If broken, the Euro will be able to reach areas above 1.48 within 24 hours after the break, first of which is 1.4824, then new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd, the most attractive of which is 1.4901. On the other hand the most important support for the short-term is Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4695, holding above it is crucial for the upward movement. But if it's broken, we expect a test of one of the important support levels in the 1.46 & 1.45 areas such as 1.4645, 1.4613, 1.4575, down to 1.4509.

• 1.4695: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 1.4645: Previous intraday resistance.
• 1.4587: Previous intraday support.

• 1.4776: previous well known resistance.
• 1.4824: previous daily high.
• 1.4901: previous daily high.


Dollar-Yen broke 88.59 and reached the target suggested in yesterday's report with astonishing accuracy when the drop stopped at 87.98, compared to our first target 87.97. Then it went up to 89.38 sharply in what might turn out to be some sort of intervention by the Japanese government. And now, it is moving above the important support 87.97, which is the key to reach 87.10. On the other hand, the resistance 89.38, which is close to the top of the triangle formation, is going to be the resistance of the day. If we break 89.38, short-term direction will be up, which would give a chance to go above 90 again, where the first important resistance in this area is the limit of the downtrend 90.40, which represents the falling trendline from August 9th top. Just below it there is the moving average SMA10. There are several resistance levels between here and the strong 91.63. If we break 87.97, the direction would stay as it is (down), and that would mean we are on our way to test or may be break the 14-year low 87.10.

• 87.97: Jan 23rd low.
• 87.10: 2009 low.
• 86.40: previous support from 1995.

• 89.38: the upper trendline in the supposed triangle pattern, most important resistance for the short-term.
• 89.96: Oct 5th high.
• 90.40: the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther T. Marji

Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.