Daily Analysis – 05/10/2009

Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the falling trend channel for the short-term, twice, but in the two times it stopped at 1.4646. Which will make this resistance specifically the most important for the short-term. A break here would be a confirmation of the break of the descending channel, and the start of the rise back to areas above 1.47, specially 1.4720. For the next few days, a break of 1.4646, and successfully reaching areas above 1.47, might mean the end of the downtrend falling from 1.4842, and the start of the rise that will challenge this top. The most important support for the short-term is the broken line of the falling channel, and the retest level at 1.4588. It will be the most important support for today because breaking it would mean that the price is back inside the falling channel, which will bring Fibonacci levels 1.4509 & 1.4430 back into focus.

• 1.4588: the retest level of the broken channel.
• 1.4509: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842.
• 1.4430: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842. The most important support for the medium-term.
• 1.4358-1.4362: the important support area which include many daily highs and lows, the latest of which were Sep 7th, Aug 24th & 25th highs.

• 1.4646: short-term resistance that stopped the price twice.
• 1.4720: the resistance area that stopped the Euro from rising 3 times lately.
• 1.4776: previous well known resistance.


As we expected, the Pound broke the 1.5902 support, and reached the first suggested target 1.5812, stopping only 10 pips below it, before it started the rise that reached 1.60 this morning. Stopping at this level in specific has a reason: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term is exactly at 1.6000, this will be the most important resistance for today, and will determine the direction of the following hours. Short-term support is 1.5923, and if it's broken, the Pound will continue its decline which touched 1.58, and will try to reach areas below Friday's low 1.5802, with a focus on the possible test the important support area 1.5754-1.5776 again, which will be a very important test if it happens. On the other hand, if a surprise happens and we break 1.6000, the Pound will be on the rise for the short-term at least, to retest Wednesday's high 1.6123, or may be to try and reach Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.6199.

• 1.5923: short-term support.
• 1.5829: intraday support from friday.
• 1.5754: the bottom of the important support area 1.5754-1.5776.

• 1.6000: short-term Fibonacci 61.8%.
• 1.6073: previous intraday support.
• 1.6123: Wednesday's high, and if this top it taken, 1.6199 will be the most important resistance for both the short & medium terms.

Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for

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