Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 8, 2009

Euro Dollar

The Euro has broken the falling trendline from Aug 27th high, and stayed above it the whole time. That is why, there is still a big probability to surpass 1.4405 and head towards areas above 1.45 for the first time this year, where targets such as 1.4510 and 1.4572 are waiting. We need to see a break of the close resistance 1.4346 to increase confidence.  If the opposite happens and we break the 1.4302 support, then we will see a correction of Friday's rise, targeting 1.4245 ideally. If this is the case then this support will be very important to decide short-term's direction. But even if such a drop happens, it will not distort the technical image before breaking 1.4245, since approaching this support and not breaking it would be a positive sign for the Euro, giving it the ambition of flying above 1.45.

• 1.4302: short-term support.
• 1.4245: Fibonacci support 61.8%, the most important support for short-term.
• 1.4183: September's 1st low.

• 1.4346: the high during the American & Asian sessions.
• 1.4412: Aug 7th high.
• 1.4446: the upper limit of the wide and crowded resistance area 1.4362-1.4446.


The ascending trendline drawn from last week's low 91.93, units with the horizontal support line at 92.74, and also with the moving average SMA100, and finally with Fibonacci 38.2% support for the short-term to form the most important support for today. Stabilization above this level is essential to keep the view that the correction for the leg down from 97.77 has already begun, and that short-term downtrend has ended. But, first we have to break through 93.04. Ideally, this correction would target 94.85 or 95.54, and in this case the latter would be a decisive resistance that will determine the trend for the short-term. If we fail to do so, we will head to a test of short-term support 92.74, a break here could target 92.43 only, where there is Fibonacci 61.8%, or we could see the long awaited visit of the strong support 91.73-91.78.

• 92.74: important support area combining short-term Fibonacci 38.2% support, with a horizontal support line, plus the ascending trendline from last week's low, and the moving average SMA100.
• 92.43: short-term Fibonacci 61.8% support.
• 91.73-91.76: Strong, important support area that combines July 8th, 10th & 13th lows.

• 93.04: closing price of the latest intraday top.
• 93.42: AUG 21st low, and SEP 1st high.
• 94.16: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move down from 97.77.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther T. Marji

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