In the original article from March 2021, we have discussed the price action and the outlook for the Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice. Today, we present un updated view. As it has been expected, the soft commodities have advanced. In particular, we saw commodities like coffee, cocoa, cotton and sugar extending higher. Hereby, orange juice futures OJ #F have rallied as well. Now, a pullback is happening. This short-term consolidation provides an opportunity both for investors and traders. Soon, an acceleration higher should take place.
Orange Juice Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis 11.07.2021
The monthly chart below shows the FCOJ front contract OJ #F at NYBOT (e-Signal ticker: JO). From the important low in May 2004, the prices have developed a cycle higher in blue wave (I) of a super cycle degree. Hereby, wave (I) has demonstrated a leading diagonal pattern and has ended in October 2016 at 227.50. From the all-time highs, a correction lower in wave (II) has unfolded as an Elliott Wave double three pattern. In 2.5 years, OJ #F has become cheaper by 60% reaching 90.60 level. It is the preferred view that an important bottom in May 2019 has been set and the correction has ended. From the lows, a new rally in prices within blue wave (III) may have already started.
For 2021-2030, the expectations are to break to the new all-time highs. The target for wave (III) will be 264.00-371.20 area. From current levels, the orange juice can, therefore, double to tripple in price.
Orange Juice Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis 11.07.2021
The weekly chart below shows in more detail the decline lower in wave (II) and the first stages of the wave (III). From the 90.60 lows, we see the advance higher as a leading diagonal in wave ((1)) ended in July 2021 at 143.80 highs. From there, a correction lower in wave ((2)) is unfolding as an expanded flat. While below 148.95 highs, it can see minor downside before turning higher again.
Investors and traders can be, therefore, looking to buy FCOJ in a pullback against 90.60 low. While short-term target will be above 143.80 highs, in a long-term, investors can be looking towards 264.00-371.20 area.