USDCAD Uptrend Pullback (Mar 9, 2018)

USDCAD is trending higher on its 4-hour time frame and is trading above an ascending trend line. Price looks ready for a pullback and applying the Fib tool on the latest swing low and high shows that the 38.2% level is closest to the trend line at 1.2850.

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. This means that the uptrend is more likely to continue than to reverse. The 100 SMA is close to the trend line support as well, adding to its strength as a floor in the event of a deeper pullback.

Stochastic is heading south, though, which means that selling pressure is in play. This could keep the correction going for some time until the oscillator reaches oversold levels and turns higher.

The US dollar gained some ground to most of peers when Trump tempered his tough talk on tariffs, easing fears of a trade war. He conceded that Canada could be exempted from higher tariffs on steel and aluminum imports while NAFTA negotiations are ongoing.

The focus shifts back to economic data today as both the US and Canada will release their jobs figures. Canada’s employment change could show a 21.3K gain hiring after the earlier 88K decline, keeping the jobless rate steady at 5.9%.

Meanwhile, the US could report a 205K increase in hiring for February, slightly faster than the previous month’s 200K gain. This might bring the jobless rate down from 4.1% to 4.0%. Analysts are also keeping close tabs on the average hourly earnings figure, which might post a 0.2% uptick.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way