USDCHF has been trending lower on its short-term time frames, with price moving inside an ascending channel that’s been holding since November last year. Price has bounced off support and is on its way to test the resistance.
Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 50% level lines up with the channel resistance at .9800 while the 61.8% level coincides with a broken support zone near .9900. The 100 SMA also lines up with the top of the channel, adding to its strength as a ceiling.
This short-term moving average is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. Stochastic is heading up to the overbought level but hasn’t crossed down yet so there may still be some buying pressure left. If the resistance holds, USDCHF could make another test of the .9500 swing low.
Strong US equity performance allowed the dollar to hold on to its gains, particularly against the Swiss franc which is sensitive to potential SNB intervention. US consumer credit dipped, however, to signal weaker financial confidence.
SNB foreign currency reserves grew from 694 billion CHF to 714 billion CHF to signal that the central bank might be expanding its forex holdings to keep the franc weak. Swiss CPI was down 0.3% as expected.
The Swiss jobless rate is up for release today but no change from the 3.2% reading is eyed. As for the US, the NFIB small business index is due, along with the JOLTS job openings data and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way