AUDUSD Channel Pullback (July 06, 2017)

AUDUSD is trending higher on its short-term time frames, moving inside an ascending channel on its 1-hour chart. Price is currently testing support and might be due for a bounce back to resistance at the .7750 to .7800 levels. Stochastic is indicating oversold conditions and is pulling up to signal a return in bullish momentum.

Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing low and high shows that the 61.8% level lines up with the channel support at the .7600 major psychological level and an area of interest. The 100 SMA also coincides with this level and is above the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the upside.

The RBA was less hawkish than expected in their monetary policy statement this week, barely highlighting the improvements in the economy and emphasizing that there are still a few roadblocks in place. Meanwhile, the FOMC minutes revealed that policymakers are still divided on their tightening and unwinding time line.

Australia is set to print its trade balance next and a larger surplus of 1.00 billion AUD from the earlier 0.56 billion AUD figure is expected. A stronger than expected result could spur a rally for the Aussie, especially since China has printed mostly stronger PMI readings lately to signal a recovery in demand.

The US NFP release on Friday could also be an event risk for this pair as traders are hoping to see an upside surprise. PMI readings and other leading indicators are hinting at strong employment prospects, which might be enough to shore up rate hike expectations for September or December.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way