EURAUD Rising Channel (Mar 14, 2017)

EURAUD is starting to trend higher these days, moving inside a rising channel connecting the latest highs and lows of price action. Price is moving closer to support and a bounce could take it back up to the channel resistance at the 1.4250 minor psychological level.

Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 50% retracement level is holding as near-term support. A larger correction could last until the 61.8% Fib at 1.4000, which is closer to the channel support and the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point.

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. Stochastic is on the move up, which means that buyers are in control of price action. However, once the oscillator reaches the overbought zone and turns lower, sellers could get back in the game.

The euro is still enjoying its post-ECB rally after Governor Draghi mentioned in the presser that there is no more urgency to ramp up easing as deflationary risks are subsiding. This reflects a notable shift in the central bank’s bias to a less dovish one, leading bulls to hop in and bears to book profits off their earlier short positions.

On the other hand, the Australian dollar is being weighed down by risk aversion and the prospect of a Fed rate hike. Higher borrowing costs in the US could dampen spending and investing activity all over the globe, which then hurts demand for commodities.

Apart from that, China just reported weaker than expected retail sales data at 9.5% year-over-year in February versus the projected 10.5% figure and the earlier 10.9% gain. Fixed asset investment came in at 8.9% year-to-date versus the projected 8.2% figure while industrial production advanced from 6.0% to 6.3%.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way