Euro/Dollar: Euro readying for Fall

Daily Forex Reports | by alpari.com | Friday, 30 October 2015 07:31 UTC

Yesterday’s Trading:

On Thursday, the euro/dollar shot upwards without updating the minimum. The fixation of profit led to a fall in the dollar rate against many pairs. I did allow for such a scenario. The dollar weakened in the second half of the day after weak US Q3 GDP results and the same for the housing market numbers in the country. The euro/dollar renewed to 1.0985.

The preliminary number for US GDP in Q3 of 2015 was set at 1.5% (forecasted: 1.6%, revised: 3.9%).

The index for incomplete housing sales in the US fell by 2.3% (forecasted:1.0%, previous: -1.4%).

Main news of the day:

  • At 09:00 EET: German retail sales;
  • At 12:00 EET, Eurozone October CPIs and September unemployment level;
  • At 14:30, Canadian August GDP, US base index on personal expenditure and changes in personal income levels for September;
  • At 15:45, the Chicago October PMI;
  • At 16:00 EET, Reuters/Michigan October consumer confidence index and FOMC member Williams is speaking.

Market Expectations:

In Asia the euro/dollar has shifted its maximum to 1.0997. The balance line was reached and in doing so the euro fell to 1.0965. I suppose that the euro is set to fall against the dollar until the end of the day. Of today’s news: it’s worth picking out Canadian GDP and Eurozone inflation figures.

Technical Analysis:

  • Intraday target maximum: 1. 0997 (current Asian), minimum: 1.0915, close: 1.0930;
  • Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 119 points (4 figures).

The euro/dollar is trading by the LB. The MA line is heading downwards, so on my forecast I’ve gone for a weakening of the euro. If we see a break of 1.1005, stave off sales.

EUR/USD Hourly Graph

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