We are taking the more aggressive view in USDJPY and calling the rally to 115.48 on 3/10 as Intermediate wave (B). Decline from there is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott wave structure with an extension in wave 3. Down from 115.5, Minor wave 1 ended at 114.46 and Minor wave 2 ended at 115.2. Minor wave 3 is extended and further subdivided into 5 impulse waves where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 112.88, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 113.56 and Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 110.59, Minute wave ((iv)) ended at 111.34, and Minute wave ((v)) of 3 is proposed complete at 110.077. Minor wave 4 bounce is currently in progress towards 111.27 – 112.02 area, which is 23.6 – 38.2 retracement of Minor wave 3, before further downside is seen to complete Minor wave 5 towards as low as 106.85 – 108.5 area. Bounce is expected to be limited and shallow.
If the current bounce gets too big, then as an alternate, the move lower in USDJPY from 115.5 high is unfolding as a zig zag Elliottwave structure where Minor wave A ended at 110.077 low with subdivision of 5 impulsive waves . In this alternative view, current bounce will then be bigger as it’s a Minor wave B bounce to correct decline from 3/10 high (115.52), but still as far as pivot at 115.2 stays intact, pair should resume lower again in Minor C. This alternate view is the less aggressive view but still calling for more downside in the pair as far as pair stays below 3/10 high. In both views (aggressive and less aggressive), we don’t like buying the pair.
1 Hour USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart 03.28.2017