The AUDUSD currency pair has remained entrenched in a persistent downtrend, originating from its peak at 0.6817. The recent bounce from 0.6490 is likely a period of consolidation within this broader downtrend.
At present, AUDUSD faces a significant near-term resistance level at 0.6585. As long as this resistance holds, it is reasonable to anticipate the resumption of the downside move, with the next target area located around 0.6400.
To suggest a possible shift in the current downtrend, a breakout above the 0.6585 resistance level is required. Such a move would signal a potential pullback towards the falling trend line on the 4-hour chart. A further breakthrough of the trend line resistance would serve as a more convincing indication of a potential trend reversal or at least a temporary halt to the bearish bias.
Traders should exercise caution and closely monitor the price action for a decisive breakout above the near-term resistance or the falling trend line to confirm the completion of the downtrend. Until such confirmation is observed, it is prudent to consider the prevailing bearish momentum intact.
In conclusion, the AUDUSD pair remains in a downtrend from 0.6817, with the recent bounce from 0.6490 likely representing a period of consolidation. As long as the near-term resistance at 0.6585 holds, the expectation is for the downside move to resume, with the next target area around 0.6280. A breakout above the resistance level or the falling trend line would warrant a reassessment of the outlook and potential pullback towards the trend line resistance. It is important to remain vigilant, stay informed about market developments, and apply effective risk management strategies when trading the AUDUSD pair during this period.