NZDUSD has been trending lower on its 4-hour time frame, moving inside a descending channel connecting its latest highs and lows. Price is currently testing the channel support and could be due for a pullback to the resistance, which lines up with the .7100 major psychological level.
Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 61.8% level lines up with the channel resistance. The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. These moving averages, which might hold as dynamic resistance, are closer to the 38.2% Fib at the .7000 handle.
Stochastic is on the move up to show that buyers are taking control of price action. This confirms that a pullback from the recent selloff might be due until the oscillator reaches the overbought zone and turns lower.
US banks will reopen after the holiday today so another round of dollar rallies is expected. The US ISM manufacturing PMI is up for release and a climb from 53.2 to 53.7 is eyed, indicating a faster pace of industry expansion. More importantly, traders will look at the jobs component to have an idea of how Friday’s NFP release might fare.
The NFP report is expected to show a 175K increase in hiring for December, slower than the earlier 178K gain. Still, this might be enough to assure market watchers that the Fed will be on track towards hiking interest rates a few more times this year. If not, the dollar could retreat against its counterparts unless the FOMC minutes due midweek give the currency a fresh boost.
New Zealand will hold its bi-weekly GDT auction and a rebound in dairy prices could mean renewed Kiwi strength. Earlier today, the Caixin manufacturing PMI printed a gain from 50.9 to 51.9 for China so this could keep risk-taking in play.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way