NZDUSD Rising Channel (Dec 12, 2016)

NZDUSD is trending higher on its 1-hour time frame, moving inside a rising channel connecting the latest highs and lows of price action. Price is currently testing the channel support, which lines up with a former short-term resistance.

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside, which suggests that the uptrend is more likely to continue rather than reverse. In addition, the 200 SMA lines up with the channel support at .7115, adding to its strength as a floor.

Price could head back up to the channel resistance at the .7250-.7300 levels from here. Stochastic is turning from the oversold region to indicate a return in buying pressure from here. However, a break below the channel support could still draw sellers to the mix and force a downtrend.

There’s not much in terms of top-tier releases from New Zealand this week, although last week’s events were mostly bullish for the Kiwi. RBNZ Governor Wheeler remarked that they’re not likely to cut rates again anytime soon, adding that the Kiwi’s appreciation isn’t too much of a problem recently. The GDT auction also yielded yet another gain in dairy prices.

This week, the main event risk might be the FOMC statement. Although most traders already expect the Fed to hike interest rates, market watchers are more interested to find out what policymakers have in mind for next year. Any indication that they’re likely to sit on their hands for a long time again could force the dollar to retreat.

Medium-tier risks include New Zealand’s manufacturing sales report for Q3, China’s industrial production and retail sales figures, US retail sales data, and US CPI readings. Weak US reports could reinforce the view that Fed tightening won’t happen again anytime soon, which could be bearish for the dollar.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way