USDJPY Ascending Trend Line (Dec 01, 2016)

USDJPY continues to trend higher, moving above a rising trend line on its 1-hour time frame. Price recently broke past the resistance around the 113.50 minor psychological level and zoomed up to the 114.50 area before pulling back.


Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing low and high shows that the 61.8% Fib is close to the 113.00 handle while the 38.2% Fib is closer to the previous swing high. If any of these levels hold as support, price could make its way back to the previous highs and beyond.


The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. Also, the 100 SMA is near the rising trend line, adding to its strength as support. Stochastic is turning down from the overbought zone, though, so sellers are taking control while buyers are taking a break.


Economic data from the US was mostly upbeat yesterday, as the ADP non-farm employment change reading hinted at an upside NFP surprise while the Chicago PMI posted a sharp climb. Personal income was higher than expected but personal spending lagged.


Earlier today, Japan reported a small upgrade in its final manufacturing PMI from 51.1 to 51.3 to reflect a slightly faster pace of expansion in the industry. Prior to this, preliminary industrial production missed estimates of a 0.2% increase and posted a 0.1% uptick instead.

US initial jobless claims and ISM manufacturing PMI are up for release, setting the tone for Friday’s NFP report. A stronger than expected read could seal the deal for a December Fed rate hike, although this scenario appears to have been well-priced in already.


By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way