EURAUD Triangle Pullback (Oct 26, 2016)

EURAUD recently broke below the short-term triangle consolidation pattern. Price dipped to a low of 1.4125 before showing signs of pulling up and using the Fib tool on the breakout move shows that the 61.8% level is close to the broken triangle support.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA, which confirms that the path of least resistance is to the downside. Also, the 100 SMA coincides with the broken symmetrical triangle support, adding to its strength as a potential ceiling. 

Stochastic is still pulling up, which means that sellers are exhausted and letting buyers take over at this point. A bit of bullish divergence can be seen as price made lower lows while stochastic had higher lows. Once the oscillator makes it to the overbought level, sellers could get back in the game and push for a drop to the previous lows. 

Earlier in the day, Australia printed a much stronger than expected quarterly CPI for Q3. Price levels were up 0.7%, stronger than the earlier 0.4% gain and the estimated 0.5% increase. The trimmed mean CPI came in line with estimates of a 0.4% gain, possibly enough to ensure that the RBA won’t need to cut interest rates in the near future.

Data has been strong for the euro as well, with the German Ifo business climate index beating expectations at 110.5 versus 109.6 and the earlier 109.5 figure. On Monday, flash manufacturing and services PMI readings from Germany and France have been mostly stronger than expected.

ECB head Draghi confirmed that stimulus will stay in place until the region hits its inflation targets, mentioning that their easing program has done a fine job of warding off deflation. Up ahead, Australia still has data on import prices and PPI due while the euro zone will have its flash CPI readings from its top economies on Friday.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way