USDJPY Downtrend Correction (May 16, 2015)

USDJPY has been trending lower on its 4-hour chart, moving below a descending trend line connecting the latest highs of price action. The pair is currently stalling between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, which keep further gains in check.

In addition, price is also finding resistance around the moving averages, which typically hold as dynamic inflection points. The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside and the downtrend could carry on, taking USDJPY to the previous lows around 105.65.

Stochastic is on the move down, indicating that sellers are in control of price action. RSI is also heading south so price could follow suit. A higher pullback, however, could last until the 109.75-110.00 level, which is closer to the falling trend line.

Data from the US economy came in mostly stronger than expected on Friday, particularly the retail sales report. Headline consumer spending rose 1.3% instead of posting the projected 0.3% drop while core retail sales gained 0.8%. Preliminary UoM consumer sentiment advanced to 95.8 to indicate stronger optimism.

Earlier today Japan reported a 26.4% year-over-year drop in preliminary machine tool orders and a sharper than expected 4.2% drop in producer prices. The Empire State manufacturing index is up for release from the US economy today and a drop from 9.6 to 7.2 is expected to show a slowdown in activity.

Risk sentiment has been favoring the lower-yielding currencies lately, although the dollar appears to have drawn support from stronger than expected consumer spending data. Meanwhile, yen rallies have been subdued because of intervention threats from the BOJ and Japanese government.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way