NZDUSD Bullish Divergence (Apr 27, 2016)

NZDUSD has been trending higher and moving inside an ascending channel on its 4-hour chart. Price is currently bouncing off the channel support around the .6800 major psychological level and might be due for a climb to the resistance at .7050-.7100. 

The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA and is currently holding as a dynamic support area. In addition, stochastic is on the move up so price might follow suit. RSI is also heading north and a bullish divergence can be seen, as price made higher lows from the beginning of the month while the oscillator drew lower lows then. 

A return in selling pressure, however, could trigger a drop below the rising channel support and a longer-term reversal for NZDUSD. Stochastic may reach the overbought region soon and allow profit-taking to take place. 

Earlier today, New Zealand reported a smaller than expected trade balance. The surplus came in at only 117 million NZD versus the estimated expansion from 367 million NZD to 405 million NZD. Report components show that exports were down by 1.2% while imports were down by 3.2%. 

Up ahead, the Australian quarterly CPI report is due and a 0.3% increase in price levels is eyed. This would be slower compared to the previous period’s 0.4% gain. Stronger than expected results could also mean gains for the Kiwi since Australia is New Zealand’s closest trade partner. 

Perhaps the bigger catalyst for price action among dollar pairs today is the FOMC statement, as traders are eager to find out if the Fed is still planning on tightening in June. Data from the US economy has been mostly weaker than expected in the past few weeks so there’s a good chance that policymakers could take a cautious stance and trigger a bit of weakness for the dollar.


Another major event risk for this pair is the RBNZ interest rate statement, as market watchers are still split in expecting the central bank to hold or cut rates. Further Kiwi jawboning might also be possible since NZDUSD appreciated since their previous policy announcement. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way