CHFJPY Trend Setup (Oct 13, 2015)

CHF has slowly been trending higher on its 1-hour chart, as the recent lows of price action can be connected by an ascending trend line. Price recently broke past the near-term resistance near the 124.00 major psychological level then climbed to a high of 125.35 before pulling back.

Applying the Fibonacci tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 50% retracement level lines up with the broken resistance and potential support. This also coincides with the dynamic inflection point at the 100 SMA, which is above the 200 SMA and indicating a continuation of the rally. A larger pullback could last until the 61.8% Fib, which is closer to the trend line and 200 SMA.

Stochastic just reached the oversold zone, indicating that sellers are losing steam and that buyers might take over. RSI is still on the way down but is nearing the oversold area also.

Event risks for this trade setup include the release of Japan’s consumer confidence index and preliminary machine tool orders data today. Switzerland is also set to print its PPI and might show a 0.1% decline in producer price levels.

The path of least resistance is to the upside, as data from Japan has been mostly weaker than expected, prompting speculations of further easing from the BOJ before the end of the year. Meanwhile the franc is under a bit of buying pressure, as investors are seeking an alternative safe-haven currency in the European region.

Japan is set to print its revised industrial production numbers later on in the week and a downgrade could mean more losses for the Japanese currency, as this report has already printed a downside surprise initially. Final euro zone CPI readings due on Friday could also impact the franc, as potential ECB easing could increase the odds of SNB intervention.


By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way