AUDUSD seems to have bottomed out from its recent long-term selloff, as the pair is starting to trade inside a rising channel on its 1-hour chart. Price recently broke above the double bottom neckline as well, setting its sights on the next potential resistance areas.
Price just got rejected on a test of the channel resistance at the .7100 area and is on its way to test the channel support at the .7000 major psychological mark, which could be enough to keep losses at bay. Stochastic is starting to move up, suggesting a potential return in buying pressure.
RSI is still pointing down, which means that there is still enough selling momentum left for an actual test of support. The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA at the moment but the moving averages look ready to make an upward crossover to indicate a pickup in bullish momentum.
Last Friday, the US economy printed a dismal jobs report, enough to dash hopes for a Fed rate hike this year. The report showed a meager 142K increase in hiring versus the projected 201K gain while negative revisions to previous reports amounted to 59K. The jobless rate held steady at 5.1% as expected but wage growth was absent.
Event risks for this trade this week include the RBA statement in tomorrow’s Asian trading session and the release of the FOMC minutes towards the end of the week. No actual policy changes are expected from the RBA but dovish remarks could trigger more losses for the Australian dollar, as China and Australia are facing downbeat prospects.
Meanwhile, the FOMC minutes are expected to be a bit more optimistic when it comes to the timing of a liftoff since Fed officials haven’t gotten wind of the dismal September NFP report back then. However, any remarks hinting that the rate hike might be pushed back to next year could spur losses for the dollar.
Other potential catalysts include the release of trade balance data from both the US and Australia, as these would reflect whether or not the respective economies are being negatively influenced by the downturn in China. The return of Chinese traders after their week-long holiday could also spur additional volatility mid-week.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way