USDJPY has been consolidating tightly recently, as the pair even formed a long-term triangle formation on the daily chart. The pair has created higher lows and found resistance at the 121.00 handle, forming an ascending triangle chart pattern.
The pair is testing the triangle support near the 118.50-119.00 region at the moment and may be due for a bounce. The shorter-term EMA is still moving above the longer-term EMA on the daily time frame, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Price could test support at the 118.00 handle near the longer-term EMA, which has held as a dynamic inflection point in the past.
A break below this area could mean more losses for USDJPY, possibly until the next support at 116.00. On the other hand, sustained buying pressure could lead to a move back to the triangle resistance at 121.00 or perhaps a break higher.
Data from the US economy has been mostly disappointing last week, forcing the dollar to return most of its recent gains. There are no top-tier releases from the US and Japan this week but risk aversion might lead to renewed support for the dollar, as the Greek debt talks don’t appear to be reaching a resolution just yet.
In terms of fundamentals, the US economy is still on a much stronger footing compared to Japan. However, the yen is emerging as a more preferred safe-haven currency for now, although weakness in the Asian region could lead to a reversal.
A breakout in either direction could last by 500 pips, which is the same height as the triangle formation. A move past 121.00 could lead to a rally until 126.00 while a break below 119.00 might lead to losses until 114.00. Of course this depends on how market catalysts play out for the next few days.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way