EURNZD Countertrend Setup (Feb 3, 2015)

EURNZD is forming a rising channel on its 1-hour time frame but seems prime for a countertrend play, as price is testing the range resistance. The pair has consolidated around the 1.5550-1.5600 psychological levels and may be due south if euro bears take over price action.

A bearish divergence can be seen, as stochastic made lower highs while price made higher highs. This could be indicative of a buildup in selling pressure, which could eventually take EURNZD down to the bottom of the channel near the 1.5200 major psychological support.

Stochastic is moving out of the oversold region for now, suggesting that another test of channel resistance is possible. Shorting at market with a stop above the channel around 1.5800 and a target of 1.5200 could yield a good return on risk for a swing trade. Bear in mind that this pair tends to get volatile and moves by more than 300 pips a day so it makes sense to have a wide stop.

In terms of fundamentals, the euro zone is in a weaker state compared to New Zealand, although their central banks are both in a dovish stance. The ECB just cut rates in a couple of instances last year and implemented a massive bond-buying program while the RBNZ dropped its hawkish bias and opened the door for a rate cut.

Waiting for further bearish momentum below the 1.5500 handle could be a prudent strategy, as this could confirm that euro bears have enough energy for a southbound move. Event risks for this trade today include the New Zealand dairy auction and the release of the employment figures in the next Asian trading session.

New Zealand is expecting to see a 0.8% uptick in hiring for Q4 2014, which might be enough to bring the jobless rate down from 5.4% to 5.3%. Stronger than expected data could reassure traders that the economy could stay resilient even if price pressures keep falling, hence supporting the Kiwi.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way