Last week’s SNB decision to remove the franc peg resulted to a massive rally for the Swiss currency and a 2000-pip selloff for EURCHF. According to SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan, this decision was made in anticipation of actual quantitative easing from the ECB this week.
With that, EURCHF could be under heavier selling pressure if traders continue to price in expectations of a massive bond-buying program from the ECB. Recall that the central bank has already announced stimulus a couple of times last year but might need to ramp up their easing efforts in order to ward off deflation.
In that case, shorting EURCHF below parity could work for a long-term position trade with a wide stop above the 1.0500 major psychological level. After all, the final CPI readings from the region reflected how the recent slide in oil prices has weighed on inflationary pressures. Aiming for .9500 or lower could yield at least a 1:1 return on risk.
Alternatively, the lack of action from the ECB could spark a large profit-taking move for this pair. A rally past the 1.0500 handle could lead to gains until 1.1000 or back to the 1.2000 levels, as traders ease off their long franc positions. However, the path of least resistance remains to the downside as the ECB has hinted that it is open to further easing if necessary.
Stochastic is pointing down, also confirming the potential for another sharp downside move. Bear in mind though that this pair can get volatile and may be prone to quick price swings before determining a clearer direction. Wide stops are recommended and it might be prudent to lock in profits along the way.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way