The 100 Days MA is standing against the upside attempts for the index, where it resides around 50% Fibonacci correction around 10360-10400, also accompanied by negative signals on Stochastic which forced the pair to reverse to the downside.
Dow Jones in Depth
Assessing the movement since last November, we can notice the formation of a bearish pattern over daily basis, Head & Shoulders pattern with the proposed neckline at 9790.
This formation signals that the bullish correction represented by the medium term upside wave which started from 6461 has ended and the index is likely to continue the general downside trend, which is supported by the steady resistance areas mentioned.
Therefore, we see the likelihood for the index to move lower over short term basis targeting the neckline mentioned targeting areas around 8295.
If the index managed to activate the bearish pattern with the breach, some fluctuation and volatility is expected around 9435 areas affected by the strength of this level which will push the index to retest the neckline before continuing the downside move.
Note that the suggested scenario requires steady daily closing below 10400 as breaking above this level will lead the index into the upside wave previously breached failing the bearish scenario.
By: Yasir Mubarak
Senior Technical Analyst
[email protected]
www.ecpulse.com