Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 16, 2013)


The US dollar had a rough day in the markets as it scored a few gains only to lose it all at the end of the NY session. The record-low initial jobless claims figure and concerns about bond yields revived the September taper plans, as the jobs market continued to show signs of improvement while the rising borrowing costs could push for an earlier reduction of bond purchases. However, the dollar soon lost ground again as manufacturing figures and industrial production in the US were much weaker than expected. Housing data and preliminary consumer sentiment are due today and weaker than expected figures could push the dollar lower again.


The euro had a topsy-turvy day as it dipped close to the 1.3200 handle against the dollar then climbed back up to the 1.3350 area. European banks were on a holiday yesterday and this explains the increased volatility for euro pairs. The euro zone CPI and core CPI are up for release today but these might not have such a huge impact on euro pairs’ movement, as risk sentiment could dictate price action for the rest of the trading sessions.


The pound was able to hold on to its recent gains and go for more when the UK printed an upside surprise in retail sales. Consumer spending ticked up by 1.1% versus the expected 0.7% increase and the previous 0.2% growth, hinting that stronger economic growth could be expected for the current quarter. There are no reports due from the UK today so these upbeat figures could continue to provide support for the pound.


Despite the lack of data from Switzerland, the franc was able to take advantage of dollar weakness, pushing USD/CHF down to the .9250 area. There are no reports due from Switzerland today so most of USD/CHF’s action could rely on US reports once again.


The yen bounced back against most of its major counterparts in yesterday’s trading. This was sparked by rumors that Abe isn’t really considering lowering corporate taxes in order to compensate for the higher consumption tax, prompting a selloff in Japanese equities and a rally in the yen. There are no reports due from Japan today so yen pairs’ behavior could depend on market sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The comdolls were able to rake in a lot of gains in yesterday’s trading as these higher-yielding currencies took advantage of dollar weakness. AUD/USD jumped from the .9100 area to .9150 while NZD/USD made another test of .8100. Canadian manufacturing sales and foreign purchases are up for release today and strong figures could lift the Loonie, along with rising oil prices spurred by the conflict in Egypt.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way.