Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 14, 2013)


The Greenback enjoyed stellar gains in yesterday’s trading, as the US retail sales report came in better than expected. In particular, the core version of the report showed a 0.5% uptick, which is better than the estimate of a 0.4% increase, while the headline figure came in at 0.2% as expected. On top of that, the June figures enjoyed significant upward revisions, enough to convince most traders that the Fed will push through with its plans to reduce bond purchases in September. PPI figures are on tap today and these could be treated as clues on how the CPI data will turn out. Stay tuned for FOMC voting member Bullard’s speech as well.


The euro lost ground to the dollar in yesterday’s trading but managed to score some gains against the yen. German ZEW economic sentiment came in better than expected while the euro zone ZEW also beat expectations. However, euro zone industrial production fell short of consensus as the actual figure showed a 0.6% increase instead of the estimated 1.1% growth. For today, the euro could be in for strong moves as the GDP figures are up for release. Indications that the region could be out of the long recession could trigger a strong rally as early as the release of the French and German GDP around the start of the London session.


The pound posted strong gains against the yen and managed to hold on to its current levels against the dollar, as the UK printed CPI that was in line with expectations of a 2.8% increase. This means that inflation is still way above the central bank’s 2% target and that this might lead them to think about dialing back their stimulus sooner rather than later. Claimant count change is up for release today and another decline in joblessness is projected.

The franc gave way to dollar strength in yesterday’s trading as there were no major releases from Switzerland. Swiss PPI is up for release today and a 0.4% uptick in producer prices could be printed, which might be positive for the franc. On the other hand, lower than expected producer price inflation could worsen the ongoing franc selloff.


The yen lost a lot of ground in yesterday’s trading, brought in part by economic improvements in its currency counterparts. What really triggered the strong selloff though was a news report that revealed Abe is considering reducing corporate taxes in order to make up for the increase in consumption tax. He hopes to spur consumer spending and also encourage foreign investment in the process, leading to a strong Nikkei rally and a yen selloff. There are no reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

There were no major reports released from Australia and Canada, as New Zealand was the only comdoll economy with data. The quarterly retail sales release came in stronger than expected as the headline figure showed a 1.7% increase while the core version of the report printed a 2.3% jump. There are no other reports due from the comdolls today so watch out for commodity price behavior and market sentiment to dictate price action.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way.