Market review for 14 – 18.11, 2011
During the past week, the negative economic statistics and general uncertainty in the EU provided a lot of pressure on European currencies (EUR and GBP).
At the beginning of the week, the Euro was under pressure against the major currencies because of the results of the Spanish and French government bonds’ auctions. Furthermore, another negative signal to market participants had the auction on Tuesday on 10-year-old Italian government bonds, the yield of which exceeded the critical level of 7%.
Appointment of the new Prime Minister’s Mario Monti did not give confidence to market participants. The pressure on Euro increased as a result of the reinforced concerns that Italy and Greece would be able to handle the existing debt problems.
The statistics, which came from Germany was also negative – the released publication of the indices of the business environment of the ZEW institute in Germany and in the EU as a whole. The values of both indicators for November were significantly worse than expected: Index of economic expectations fell compared to October by 7.9 points to -59.1 points and ZEW in November dropped to 34.2 points versus forecasted 32.0 points. The EUR/USD pair had a definite down day setting new lows at $1.3512 during the European trading session.
The GBP/USD pair got hammered in the beginning of the week and fell to the region of $1.5920. The reason for that was the statement of Charter institute of personnel and development which stated that its index of hire of Great Britain fell to – 3 in the fourth quarter versus – 1 in the previous quarter. The new minimums were set at the lows of $1.5812 area.
The pound also dropped after the released statistics which showed unemployment rate growth in Great Britain. In particular, in October the number increased by 5.3 thousands when the forecast was at 21.0.The British pound weakened against the dollar after the Bank of England lowered forecasts for economic growth and inflation, as expected, signaling the introduction of a new fiscal stimulus in the coming months.
But after the publication of the report on retail sales in the UK, the British Pound showed an increase against the US dollar and strengthened to $1.5800 area. The retail sales grew in October and exceeded the expectations (+0.9 % y/y vs. -0.2 %).
The Euro slightly recovered against the U.S. dollar after falling to a new 5 – week low at $1.3422 in early Asian trading. Furthermore, the Euro was under pressure against the major currencies because of the results of the Spanish and French government bonds’ auctions. The EUR /USD pair traded today in the $1.3422 – $1.3537 range.
The Swiss franc dropped against the U.S. Dollar after the release of statistics showing that the producer and import price index in October fell by 1.8% over the previous year.
According to the released information, the interest rate in Japan has been left without changes at the previous level of 0,10%. During the whole week the USD/JPY pair traded in the range of Y76,50 – Y77,20.
Weekly technical analysis for 21.11 – 25.11
EURUSD
The pair has broken 1.37441 and aiming to 1.33427.
Resistance: 1.37441, 1.41130, 1.44835
Support: 1.33427, 1.28800, 1.25667
GBPUSD
The pair stays below 1.59962 and may decline to Fibonacci 23% at 1.53340.
Resistance: 1.59962, 1.64274, 1.68504
Support: 1.52523, 1.48532, 1.43344
USDCHF
The pair is trying to stay above 0.91074 this will bring pair to test resistance at 0.93264.
Resistance: 0.93264, 0.96597, 0.99031
Support: 0.91074, 0.88022, 0.85633
USDJPY
The pair is rolling back to 76.535.
Resistance: 80.244, 83.330, 86.836
Support: 76.535, 73.126, 69,117
AUDUSD
The pair has reached 1.00031 and declining to the Moving Average (100) at 0.97889.
Resistance: 1.00031, 1.01873, 1.03847
Support: 0.97889, 0.94417, 0.895581