Forex Metal Weekly Newsletter

 

Market review for 13 – 17.06, 2011

Two new earth-quakes were recorded in New-Zealand on Monday last week, which reduced the New-Zealand dollar rate against the greenback.

Last weekfinancial problems of Greece reinforced their pressure on the euro.  The S&P credit agency decreased the rating of Greece again. But the euro managed to keep strength against the US dollar. Market participants were watching closely the discussion of the EU and the IMF regarding the bailout package for Greece.

The USD/JPY pair grew to the Y80.69 level on Monday as the Japanese yen weakened over the speculations that the bank of Japan would introduce new measures to stimulate the Japanese economy.

The released on Tuesday economic statistics in China demonstrated industrial production growth (actual value of 13.3% growth against the 13.1% forecasted), which pressured the demand for the low-risk currencies and the high-yielding assets increased.  As a result the EUR/USD reached the $1.4470 maximums.

According to the forecasts, the Bank of Japan left the principal rate unchanged at the previous level of 0.10%.

Wednesday saw a negative rally of the euro as a result of the uncertain situation with Greece and reinforced concerns that Greece would eventually go into default. European leaders could not agree on any specific decision regarding Greek debt crises and concluded to meet again on June 19-th.  EU Financial Ministers will try to form an agreement on the bailout terms for Greece. Consequently the US dollar showed considerable growth against all major currencies. The released on the same day negative US fundamentals did not stop the greenback positive rally. As a result, the EUR/USD closed the trading day at the minimums of $1,4150 and the GBP/USD dropped to $1,6200.

The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor, Glenn Stevens, mentioned in his speech on Wednesday that the interest rate would be increased by the RBA soon. Therefore, the Australian dollar rate strengthened on Wednesday and kept the positive dynamics throughout the day.

According to the released information on Thursday, the Swiss National bank left the principal rate unchanged at the previous level of 0.25%. As a result, the Swiss frank strengthened.

The euro continued to drop during the morning trading on Thursday and reached its three-week lows of 1.4090 as  markets continued to be concerned over the debt issues in Greece. But the statement of the ECB representative, Mr. Reine, supported the euro. He mentioned, that once Greece would reduce its budget expenses, the IMF and EC would allocate financial support to Greece. The pound dropped during the morning trading as well to the $1.6140 range. The publication of the UK statistics reinforced the pressure on the sterling. Retail sales dropped for 1.6% against the expected 0.6%.

The release of the negative US fundamentals pressured the greenback on Thursday.  In particular, the Philadelphia Federal index dropped to the -7.7 level, while the forecasted level was at the 7.0 mark.

The EUR/USD managed to close the trading week at the $1,4300 maximums after the fact that German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, agreed to search for compromises with the ECB regarding the Greek issue.

 

Weekly technical analysis for 20 – 24.06

EURUSD

The pair is aiming to support level at 1.41130. Lower is a strong support at 1.37441.

Resistance:  1.44835, 1.47697, 1.50676

Support: 1.41130, 1.37441, 1.33427

GBPUSD

The pair is trading between Moving Averages (200) 1.65379 and Moving Average (100) 1.59962.

Resistance:  1.64274, 1.68504, 1.72652

Support:  1.59962, 1.52523, 1.48532

USDCHF

The pair has declined to 0.82723. The pair may roll back to channel line at 0.85633.

Resistance:  0.85633, 0.88022, 0.91074

Support:  0.82723, 0.79957, 0.76882

USDJPY

The pair declined to 80.244. If this level is broken the pair may decline to the next support level at 76.535 but before that the channel line should be broken at 78.689.

Resistance:  80.244, 83.330, 86.836

Support:  76.535, 73.126, 69.117

AUDUSD

The pair has broken 1.05810 and aiming to 1.03847.

Resistance:  1.05810, 1.07806, 1.09604

Support:  1.03847, 1.01873, 1.00031