Forexpros Daily Analysis Jan 5, 2009
Fundamental Analysis: FOMC Meeting Minutes
Traders of the USD await the publication of the FOMC Meeting Minutes tomorrow (Jan 6).
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee’s interest rate meeting held about two weeks earlier. The minutes provide detailed insights regarding the FOMC’s stance on monetary policy, so Currency traders carefully comb them for clues regarding future interest rate shifts.
The support 1.4264 survived yesterday, causing the Euro to rise. It broke the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.4308, and reached both targets 1.4369 & the 1.4424-1.4457 successfully. But with this rise, we got closer to an important resistance, provided by the rising trend line from 1.4410, which is illustrated on the attached chart, and is currently at 1.4485. This line could provide a chance to reverse the short term direction after yesterday’s rise. So, 1.4485 will be resistance of the day, and breaking it would indicate a continuation in the uptrend with the next set of targets at 1.4569 & 1.4678, the first & second main Fibonacci retracement levels for the medium term (The 38.2% & 50%). But, if 1.4485 could reverse the direction, the price will drop to the support at 1.4454, and if broken a correction for the whole up-move from 1.4256 will be initiated, which will ideally target 1.4369, and may be later 1.4303.
• 1.4454: support level on the hourly chart.
• 1.4369: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4256.
• 1.4303: support level on the hourly chart.
• 1.4485: the rising trend line from 1.4410 on the hourly chart.
• 1.4569: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.5139 to 1.4216.
• 1.4678: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 1.5139 to 1.4216.
At the moment of preparing this report, the Dollar-Yen is approaching 91.60, the rising trend line from 84.81. This point could be critical not just for the short term but for the medium term as well, since breaking it would indicate the termination of the rising trend line from 84.81, which will have a huge effect on the technical outlook for the medium term. If this line is broken, we will fall to the important 90.55, which is also another important support for the short term, and maybe we will see 89.58 after that. On the other hand, if the line survives this test, a short term rise will be initiated, challenging short term resistance at 91.97, and breaking this level would lead to a correction to the drop from 93.20 (and may be to more than that), targeting the important 92.59, and once its broken we will be looking forward to the long awaited 93.53.
• 91.60: the rising trend line from 84.81.
• 90.55: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 93.20.
• 89.58: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 87.35 to 93.20.
• 91.97: intraday resistance.
• 92.59: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
• 93.53: Mar 19h low.
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