USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for May 5, 2011

The Swiss economy lacks fundamentals today, thus main highlight will be on US data. At 12:30 GMT, the U.S economy will release initial jobless claims for the week ending April 30 and continuing claims for the week ending April 23. US jobless claims data is expected to have impact on market as it is released between ADP employment yesterday and ahead of the awaited non-farm payrolls report on Friday, where all are predicted to confer a full picture about the US labor market. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 30, due at 12:30 GMT, is set to show a decline in the number of people seeking jobless benefits to 410,000 compared with 429,000 a week before, according to median projections.

On Wednesday, the dollar remained trading near its record low against the Swiss franc recorded on Tuesday after the tumble in stocks that fell on the back of expected revenge from al-Qaeda after the kill of their leader by US forces, where risk aversion enhanced demand on the swissy as the most favorable safe-haven currency.

Yesterday’s US data showed that the private sector added 179,000 jobs in April from 201,000 in March, while ISM non-manufacturing slipped to 52.8 in April from 57.3 in March.

While the Fed is expected to keep loose monetary policy for 2012, the SNB is predicted to tighten monetary policy this year, probably in September, which may allow the Swiss franc to appreciate more against the greenback, thereby pushing the pair down further and keeping the bearish outlook.

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