Daily Analysis – 24/11/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 24, 2009

Fundamental Insight

The US Census Bureau will release the Monthly New Home Sales Report tomorrow (Nov 25th).

The report helps analyze the strength of the US housing market, and the economy as a whole, by measuring the annualized number of new residential buildings that were sold during the previous month.
The new home sales report is quite volatile and subject to huge revisions.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts expect last month’s measure of 402.00K to rise to 408.00K.

Euro Dollar

Although it broke the resistance at 1.4952, The Euro was unable to surpass 1.50. The sharp drop that followed made 1.4875 the most important support for the short-term. This support, could reverse this drop, and initiate a rising move. But if it is broken, the drop coming from 1.4997 will continue, targeting 1.4820 first, and then the most important support for the time being at 1.4786. On the other hand, short-term resistance is 1.4951, and if it is overtaken, then the technical outlook will have the strength to reach 1.5018 first, and if this is broke we have the right to expect 1.5082 for the first time this year.

• 1.4875: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 1.4820: November 13th low.
• 1.4786: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625, the most important support for the medium-term.

• 1.4951: short-term resistance.
• 1.5018: Nov 9th & 10th high.
• 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.


Dollar-Yen moved in a tight range again, but it dropped to 88.54 this morning which is the same level that stopped yesterday’s drop! The down movement has slowed down, drawing our attention to what could be a wedge pattern, which is a pattern that could limit the current drop to the bottom of this pattern, or a support that is close to it, and could push price higher on the short-term. If this scenario turns out to be right, we will rise and break short-term resistance 88.97 where there is the moving average SMA100, and we will witness a rising move targeting the falling trendline from October 26th top, and the upper limit of the above mentioned pattern at 89.71 first, and if broken we could see a jump to 90.73. On the other hand, if the short-term support  at 88.72 is broken, we will target 88.13 which is the last significant support before the last 15 years low 87.10

• 88.56: short-term support.
• 88.13: Oct 13th low.
• 87.10: Jan 12th low.

• 88.97: the moving average SMA100.
• 89.71: the top of the supposed wedge formation.
• 90.73: intraday top.

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