Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 11, 2009
The US Department of Labor will release the weekly Initial Jobless Claims report tomorrow (NOV 12).
The report serves as a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week, and gives an indication to the health of the job market, as increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
While this measure tends to be volatile, analysts predict no change since last week’s measure of 512.00k.
In the past 24 hours, the Euro have not broken the support 1.4925 nor the resistance 1.5014, that the price stopped at again with accuracy (yesterday’s high is exactly Monday’s high at 1.5018). And now, it looks like there is an attempt to break the rising trendline from November 3rd bottoms, which is currently at 1.4975. If the Dollar manages to drag the Euro to below this line, the rising trend from last weeks high 1.4625 will be over. And that suggests there will be a correction matching the size of this trend that will force the Euro to areas below 1.49 where we find three attractive targets: Fibonacci 38.2 for the above mentioned uptrend at 1.4868, and Fibonacci 50% at 1.4821, and before them the resistance that stopped the Euro several times last week at 1.4897. the most important resistance is defiantly 1.5014, and only breaking it will improve the short-term technical outlook for the Euro, since such a break will lead the price up to areas not seen this year, first of which 1.5082 then 1.5144.
• 1.4975: The bottom of the rising channel from Nov 3rd lows.
• 1.4897: the resistance that stopped the price several times last week.
• 1.4821: Fibonacci 50% for the last rising move.
• 1.5014: previous resistance from 2008.
• 1.5082: previous resistan4ce from 2008.
• 1.5144: previous support from 2008.
Dollar-Yen broke the support 89.79 and reached the first target suggested for that break 89.40 successfully. The break of 89.79, the support that was provided to us by the rising trendline from last week’s low, clearly means that the short-term trend is a down trend. However, the correction of yesterday’s drop has already started, and is getting closer and closer to the broken trendline at 89.82 as this report is prepared. But the most important resistance is 90.23, where the falling trendline from October 27th top awaits. The bears will be in control as long as price is below this line that provides today’s most important resistance. And if this happens, we expect the price to fall and test Fibonacci 61.8% support for the micro-term at 89.53, and may be a break as well, that will lead to the important bottom 88.82. If the opposite of what we expect happens, and we break the resistance 90.23, the price will be on its way to 90.90 first, and may be 91.31 later.
• 89.53: Fibhonaci 61.8% for the micro-term.
• 88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.
• 88.33: previous support.
• 90.23: the falling trendline from Oct 27th high.
• 90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
• 91.31: Nov 4th high.
Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther Marji
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