What is the direction of highest probability today? (29/10/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key events today:

– Eurozone Consumer Confidence @ 10AM GMT

– US GDP @ 12:30 GMT

– US Jobless Claims @ 12:30 GMT

*Watch out for those GDP figures. Last week we saw bad GDP figures from the UK and the Pound got pounded…

Probability Studies:


Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.4812
Bullish Probability above: 1.4812
Significant resistance: 1.4812
Significant support:1.4657, 1.4563


Direction of  Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.6300
Bearish Probability below: 1.6300
Significant support: 1.6300, 1.5927, 1.6257
Significant resistance:1.6680

*Please note that the 60minute trend forms part of a bigger Head and Shoulder bearish pattern. See the chart below (this is why we have a no trade zone) Should the High of 1.6466 be taken, I will have a closer look at longs


Head and Shoulders patterns are bearish when found in a bull trend. The neckline support resides at 1.6257. If latter support is violated we can expect a significant drop to the downside. I would wait for this neckline to be violated before entering any shorts as Technical Analysis is not an exact science. Wait for confirmation first


Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 0.9120
Bullish Probability above: 0.9120
Significant resistance: 0.9120
Significant support:0.8889


Direction of  Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 91.50
Bullish Probability above: 91.50
Significant resistance: 91.00, 9150
Significant support:NA

This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique

I am presenting another free Level 1 class on the Probability Study Technique on Friday, 30 October at 6AM EST (10AM GMT) Please go to this link to register for this free class: http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php

Enjoy and good luck!