Forexpros.com Daily Analysis – 30/09/2009

Euro Dollar

The Euro stopped just below the most important resistance in yesterday's report 1.4639 (Asian session high was 1.4631). But even though, it is trading now above the falling channel, after it succeeded in breaking it. Still, we can spot a trendline that stopped the Euro, which is the rising trendline from inside the falling channel. We can clearly see that price stopped accurately at this line, running currently at 1.4639, the most important resistance for today as it was for yesterday. If we break it to the upside, the Euro will be free from the falling trend, and will try to reach areas above 1.47, most important of which are 1.4720 and 1.4776, and may be areas above 1.48 later this week. The most important support is 1.4590, which represents the retest level of the channel that was broken during the Asian session. And breaking it means that the falling trend will try to reach Fibonacci 50% at 1.4509, or Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4430.

Support:
• 1.4590: the retest level for the falling channel that was broken during the Asian session.
• 1.4509: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842.
• 1.4430: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842.

Resistance:
• 1.4639: the retest level of the rising trendline that was previously broken.
• 1.4720: the resistance area that stopped the Euro from rising 3 times late last week.
• 1.4776: previous resistance.

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USD/JPY

We did not even come close to 89.23, but on the contrary tried to break 90.20, but could not hold above it more than a few minutes, then returned fast to below 90 again. And today, 90.20 will still be the most important resistance. If the dollar fails to break it, this pair will go back to falling, after that sharp bounce from 88.22. But, a break of 90.20 would give a chance to approach 91 since the first important resistance in these areas 90.90. Just above that there is the most important resistance, the limit of the downtrend 91.19, which represents the falling trendline from August 9th top, and just below it there is the moving average SMA100. The most important support for today is 89.31 which is Fibonacci 50% for the rise from post-open low. If we break 89.31 that would mean we are on our way to break the 8-month low at 88.22, in this case 87.97 and 87.10 look like the most possible targets of the next leg down.

Support:
• 89.31: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.
• 88.56: previous intraday support.
• 87.97: Jan 23rd low.

Resistance:
• 90.20: the previous support that stopped the current rise, and a support area that includes the daily lows of 11th & 16th of the month.
• 90.90: previous intraday support/resistance.
• 91.19: the limit of the downtrend, the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.

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