Japan’s Currency Hits a 7 Month High

The Yen rose to a 7 month high versus the Dollar as Japan’s new government reiterated its opposition to pursuing deliberate currency devaluation strategy. The Sterling dropped to a 3 month low versus the Dollar last week after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King was quoted as saying the Pound’s weakness is aiding in stabilizing the U.K.’s economy. Today’s trading day will likely experience the markets reaction to the G20 leaders’ decisions, mainly their pledge to continue supporting the stimulus efforts.

Economic News

USD – USD Falls below 90.00 Yen

The Dollar weakened on Friday after a set of mixed U.S economic reports as well as reports that the G20 leaders will continue to provide support for the global economy. The Dollar index fell to 76.774 Friday, down from 76.901 late Thursday. The Dollar remained down more than 1% versus the Japanese Yen after statements by Japan’s Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii that he opposes intervening in the currency markets to curb the rise in the Yen.

Orders of durable goods unexpectedly fell 2.4% in August. Sales of new homes rose 0.7% to a 429,000 pace in August, much slower than the expected 442,000. On the other hand, the Reuters-University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was revised to 73.5 in September, compared to a previous estimate of 70.2 and 65.7 in August, beating analysts expectations.

No news events are expected today form the U.S; therefore, it is likely that Dollar sentiment will be determined by investors’ reactions to the G20 concluding statements.

EUR – Sterling Trades at a 3 Month Low vs. USD

The Sterling dropped to a 3 month low below $1.60 last week after Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mervyn King was quoted stating the Pound’s weakness is aiding in the recovery of the U.K economy. The EUR traded at $1.4665, up 0.2% from Thursday.

The Sterling slid 2.1% versus the Dollar last week following very dovish announcements by BOE Governor Mervyn King, calling the Pound’s recent drop “very helpful.” The Pound fell Friday to $1.5918, the lowest level since June 8, and depreciated to 91.19 per ERU, the weakest level since April 1.

While a rather slow news day is expected today, ECB president Trichet’s speech at 2:30 GMT is likely to provide volatility to the EUR as interest rate targets and exit strategies are likely to be discussed.

JPY – Yen at a 7 Month high versus the Dollar

The Yen registered sharp gains Friday, breaching the significant Y90.00 barrier against the Dollar and reaching the highest levels versus the greenback in over 7 months. Japan’s currency benefited from supportive comments from Japan’s finance minister Hirohisa Fujii who said that he opposes intentional devaluation of the Yen.

The JPY advanced 1.8% this week to 89.64 per Dollar from 91.29 on Sept. 18, briefly touching 89.51 Friday, the strongest level since Feb. 5. The currency also gained 2% to 131.70 per ERU, from 134.33.

Crude Oil – Crude Prices up Slightly on Mixed Data

At the end of a very volatile trading day Friday, Crude Oil futures rose slightly, for the first session in 3, following the release of mixed economic data from the U.S as well as on increased odds of broad based sanctions against Iran, the world’s 4th largest Oil producer. Crude for November delivery rose 13 cents, or 0.2%, to end at $66.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after dropping as low as $65.05, the lowest level since July 30. Overall futures tumbled more than 8% this week, the biggest weekly loss in more than two months.

The unexpected jump in the Reuters/UoM Consumer Sentiment Index to 73.5 in September helped push up Oil prices; however, concerns over weak demand dampened Friday’s gains. Furthermore, several worse than expected economic data from the U.S stemmed further Oil’s Gains.

With last Wednesday’s report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) stating that inventories of Crude Oil, gasoline and other petroleum products all rose last week and a lack of any significant economic news today, Oil prices will likely continue to stay subdued throughout today’s trading day.

Technical News

The typical range trading on the 4-hour chart continues. The daily chart RSI is floating in neutral territory. However, the hourly chart’s RSI is already floating in the oversold territory, suggesting an upward correction may be imminent. Going long might be a wise choice.
The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the daily chart’s RSI indicating an upward correction may be imminent. The upward direction on the 4-hour chart’s Momentum oscillator also supports this notion. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.
The hourly chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, there is a fresh bullish cross forming on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic indicating a bullish correction might take place in the nearest future. Going long might be a wise choice.
The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The Daily chart’s Slow Stochastic providing us with mixed signals. All oscillators on the 4 hour chart do not provide a clear direction as well. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies might be a good strategy today.

The Wild Card

This pair’s sustained upward movement has finally pushed its price into the over-bought territory on the daily chart’s RSI. Not only that, but there actually appears to be a bearish cross on the Slow Stochastic pointing to an imminent downward correction. Forex traders have the opportunity to wait for the downward breach on the hourlies and go short in order to ride out the impending wave.

Written by: Forexyard.com