Daily Analysis – 24/09/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 24, 2009

Euro Dollar

As all other majors, the Euro dropped significantly after the Fed, and went back to 1.4685, but it stood its ground and spent the whole Asian session above 1.47. This return could provide us with the chance to retest the falling and broken trendline, inside the rising channel, which is currently at 1.4646, which is the support of the day. Whereas resistance of the day is Fibonacci 61.8% for "post-Fed decline". This is currently at 1.4782. We expect the Euro to spend sometime between those two levels, before breaking one of them. In case we break 1.4646 the Euro would be already in a correction for the whole rise from 1.4176, which would target 1.4588 at least, and could reach 1.4430. On the other hand, breaking 1.4782 would indicate that the "post-Fed decline" is just temporary and limited, and that we will be heading towards 1.4901.

• 1.4685: Asian session low.
• 1.4646: the retest level for the broken falling trendline, inside the rising channel.
• 1.4588: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from 1.4176 to yesterday's top 1.4842.

• 1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
• 1.4824: previous daily high.
• 1.4901: previous daily high.


Not a lot of changes since yesterday, and not a lot to talk about, as the price managed to hold above the important support 90.51, and tried to test the important Fibonacci resistance 91.74, but stopped just below it. Which leaves both the important support and the important resistance from yesterday's report untouched, and we will continue to consider them as the most important levels for today as well. We prefer waiting for a break of 91.74 or 90.51, since we believe that breaking any of those levels will decide the direction of the next move. If we break 91.74, we would be on the road again to 92.50. And if we break 90.51 the downside pressure will come back to drive the price gradually to test (and may be break) the psychological level 90, and to move towards targets below it, first of which is the important support area 89.68-89.78.

• 90.51: the previous support that stopped the current drop, most important support for today.
• 90.11: Sep 16th low.
• 89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.

• 91.33: short-term resistance.
• 91.74: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, the most important resistance for the time being.
• 92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther T. Marji

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