Daily FX Market Outlook by AceTrader 4-1-2011

Market Review – 03/01/2011 22:07 GMT

The greenback rises versus yen due to robust US economic data and strength in stocks

The greenback initially extended last week’s selloff to 80.93 against the Japanese yen in Asian morning before recovery in part due to the renewed geopolitical tensions between S. Korea and N. Korea, however,

the pair rebounded and ratcheted higher in Europe and NY sessions on cross unwinding in yen together with intra-day rise in U.S. Treasury yields ( benchmark 10-year yield climbed back above 3.40%). Strength in global stocks also boosted risk appetite and the pair eventually rose to 81.75 in late NY trade. DJI rose by 0.81% and ended up at 11670.75. CAC 40 rose by 2.53% while DAX closed up by 1.09%.  
The dollar was also supported as US construction spending in November came in at 0.4%, stronger than the forecast of 0.2% while ISM manufacturing index rose to 57.0 in December from 56.6 in November.   
The single currency edged lower in Asia in part due to the soft official Chinese PMI (53.9 in December versus 55.2 in November) released over the weekend together with worries that European credit markets could be hit by a second credit crisis within months as suggested by a report in the Telegraph newspaper on Sunday. Euro fell to as low as 1.3250 in European morning, however, price recovered after the release of robust German and EU economic data and euro later rose to 1.3396 in NY session before easing.  
On economic front, German PMI for manufacturing in December actual came in at 60.7, which was the fastest rate in over 14 years. EU Manufacturing PMI came in at 57.1, stronger than the forecast of 56.8.  
Euro was supported as a Bloomberg news report quoted that Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang said China would continue buying Spanish debts even amid a surge in the European nation’s borrowing costs.   
Despite last Friday’s rally from 1.5425 to 1.5680 in thin market conditions on the last trading day of 2010, the British pound remained under pressure throughout Monday. Cable edged lower from 1.5610 and eventually fell to as low as 1.5434 before staging a minor recovery in NY afternoon.   
The market would pay attention to the release of US nonfarm payroll and unemployment data on Friday. Economists predicted a gain of 140,000 jobs from a rise of 39,000 at the previous reading.   
Economic indicators to be released on Tuesday include:  
Germany unemployment rate, U.K. Manufacturing PMI, Mortgage Approval, EU CPI estimate, US Factory order and FOMC meeting minutes (Market holiday in New Zealand ).