AUDUSD Ascending Channel (Feb 01, 2018)

AUDUSD continues to trend higher inside its ascending channel pattern on the 4-hour time frame. Price is currently testing the channel support and might be due for a bounce to the top. 

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside. This means that the rally is more likely to resume than to reverse. Still, a break below the channel support could find a floor at the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point.

Stochastic is still on the move down to indicate that selling pressure is present. The oscillator is near oversold conditions, though, so sellers might want to take a break soon and allow buyers to take over. In that case, the pair could recover to the top of the channel near .8200.

Australia’s quarterly CPI readings turned out slightly weaker than expected as the headline figure came in at 0.6% versus 0.7% while the trimmed mean CPI was at 0.4% versus 0.5%. Private sector credit also fell short of estimates at 0.3% versus 0.5%.

Meanwhile, data from China was mixed as the official manufacturing PMI fell from 51.6 to 51.3 while the non-manufacturing component improved from 55.0 to 55.3. The Caixin version of the manufacturing PMI held steady at 51.5 as expected.

Earlier today, data from Australia also turned out mixed. The AIG manufacturing index printed a gain from 56.2 to 58.7 while import prices popped up by 2.0% to reflect stronger inflationary pressure. Building approvals, however, slipped 20%.

The FOMC statement led to a bit of a boost for the dollar on stronger inflation expectations and the addition of the word “further” in projecting more tightening moves. The next event risk for the dollar could be the NFP release on Friday and the ADP report hinted at a potential upside surprise.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way