EURUSD Descending Channel (Dec 14, 2017)

EURUSD is trending lower and moving inside a descending channel on its 1-hour time frame. Price is testing resistance after a sharp rally, so either a bounce or break could be due.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside, which means that the selloff is likely to continue. The channel resistance also lines up with the 50% retracement level.

Stochastic is indicating overbought conditions and is turning lower, reflecting a return in selling pressure. However, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to suggest a potential return in bullish momentum. A break past 1.1850 could be enough to signal that a reversal is underway.

The FOMC hiked interest rates by 0.25% as expected but Yellen reiterated her cautious inflation outlook and also warned that the tax cuts could lead to a mere short-term boost rather than a long-term one. Upgrades were seen for most of the growth and jobs figures in this year and the next couple of ones, but inflation estimates were mostly unchanged.

As for the euro, the ECB decision today could prove to be a huge event risk as traders are now waiting for clues on a rate hike. Medium-tier data from the euro zone has been mixed since the last decision but inflation has ticked higher.

US retail sales figures are also lined up today, with the headline figure slated to show a 0.3% gain and the core reading likely to show a much stronger 0.6% increase. Higher than expected consumer spending data could reinforce positive growth expectations and more rate hikes next year.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way