EURAUD recently broke below its ascending channel bottom around 1.5600-1.5650 then hit a low of 1.5500 before pulling up. Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 50% level lines up with the broken channel support, which might hold as resistance.
The 100 SMA is crossing below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. This suggests that the selloff could resume soon, probably taking price back down to the swing low or lower. Stochastic is also indicating overbought conditions and turning lower could draw more sellers to the mix.
The RBA sounded less dovish than usual in their latest statement, citing that non-mining investment is picking up and that CPI could edge higher. This marked a difference from their earlier jawboning remarks and assessment that inflation could remain low for some time.
However, Australia’s Q3 GDP missed estimates and came in at 0.6% versus the projected 0.7% growth figure. The previous period’s GDP enjoyed an upgrade from 0.8% to 0.9%, though. The trade balance is still due next and a smaller surplus is eyed.
As for the euro, a few misses in its latest set of medium-tier data weighed on the currency. Retail sales also turned out weaker than expected with a 1.1% slide versus the estimated 0.6% fall. Only German factory orders and the region’s retail PMI are due next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way