AUDJPY Uptrend Setup (Sep 22, 2017)

AUDJPY continues to trend higher and is moving inside an ascending channel pattern on its 4-hour chart. Price just bounced off the resistance at 90.30 and is making a pullback to support at the 89.00 area.

Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest swing low and high shows that the 61.8% level lines up with the channel support, adding to its strength as a floor. However, price already seems to be bouncing off the 50% Fib and could be poised for another test of resistance from here.

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. This means that the uptrend is more likely to continue than to reverse. Stochastic is still pointing down to indicate that there may be a bit of selling pressure left before Aussie bulls get back in the game.

The BOJ kept interest rates on hold as expected and didn’t trigger too much of a reaction from the Japanese currency. The central bank also maintained its pace of JGB purchases while keeping a relatively upbeat outlook on the economy.

However, the Aussie was on the decline due to weaker commodity prices, particularly metals like iron ore. The latest FOMC statement, which turned out more hawkish than expected, was being blamed for the selloff as a tightening bias would weigh on global demand down the line.

There are no other reports lined up from Japan or Australia for the rest of the week as traders look to market sentiment for clues. There are still some concerns about an attack from North Korea, which would drastically weigh on the higher-yielding Aussie and might lead to a gap over the weekend if the tension escalates.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way