NZDJPY was previously consolidating inside a falling wedge formation before an upside breakout occurred. Price reached a high of 80.40 before pulling back, possibly making a retest of the broken wedge resistance. Stochastic is heading lower for now, so sellers have the upper hand until the oscillator hits oversold levels and turns higher.
Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing low and high on the 4-hour time frame shows that the 61.8% level is closest to the broken resistance and also lines up with an area of interest or former resistance. This is also close to the 100 SMA dynamic support, which is above the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
Risk appetite has picked up for the most part of the week as geopolitical risks related to North Korea’s missile threats have been subdued. At the same time, dollar strength has translated to yen weakness, buoying most yen pairs higher in the past few days, although signs of profit-taking are materializing.
There have been no major reports out of New Zealand this week, with the election polls being the main source of volatility. Earlier on, a poll indicating that the Green Party would likely not get enough votes to secure seats in Parliament spurred speculations that the National Party won’t have trouble holding on to majority.
There are no major reports from both Japan and New Zealand until the end of the week, but risk sentiment could be in for a big shift once more if North Korea launches another test or makes more threats over the weekend. Also, the US retail sales release could influence yen-dollar dynamics once more.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way