USDJPY Downtrend Channel (Jan 20, 2017)

USDJPY continues to trend lower on its 1-hour time frame, moving inside a descending channel connecting the latest highs and lows. Price is currently bouncing off the channel resistance at the 115.50 minor psychological level and could be due for a selloff to the support at 112.00 or at least until the swing low at 112.50.

The 61.8% Fib was in line with the channel resistance, which explains why it’s currently holding as a ceiling. Also, the 200 SMA lined up with the Fib levels, adding to their strength as resistance. The 100 SMA is safely below this longer-term moving average and is increasing the gap so the path of least resistance is to the downside and bearish pressure is picking up. 

Stochastic is heading south to indicate that sellers are in control of price action. However, once the oscillator reaches the oversold region and turns higher, bears could book profits and allow buyers to take over.

US economic data has been mostly stronger than expected, as initial jobless claims, Philly Fed index, and housing starts surpassed estimates. However, dollar traders remain wary of event risks stemming from Trump’s inauguration so there might be some profit-taking off long dollar positions before the end of the week.

There have been no major reports out of Japan recently but the currency seems to be taking advantage of the risk-off flows these days. Aside from that, bullish sentiment has been restored after the BOJ recently upgraded their GDP forecasts. 

By Kate Curtis from  Trader’s Way