Forex-Metal Daily Analysis -31/07/2012

Market review for 30.07.12: The markets in anticipation of the ECB and Fed of U.S. meetings.


Asian and European trading sessions:

Euro: During the Asian trading session the Euro fell against most major currencies; the EUR / USD pair fell below $ 1.2300. The pair continued to trade even lower reaching the level of $ 1.2224 on the European session after it became known that Spain, the fourth largest economy in the Euro region will have to struggle to reduce debt due to the fact that the recession in country has grown. Another reason for today’s negative dynamics of the currency was the report showed that European debt crisis affected the consumer sentiment. The survey data from the European Commission showed that the index of economic sentiment fell to 87.9 in July from 89.9 a month earlier and forecasted 88.9. Moreover, the Industrial confidence fell to -15 in July from -12.8 the previous month and continued its downward trend that began in March. Also there were rumors on markets that at the next meeting on August 2 the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will announce decision on additional measures to ease the debt crisis.

U.S. Dollar: On the eve of a two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve which begins tomorrow the decision of which will be announced on Wednesday, August 1, demand for the dollar was limited today. There were rumors on markets that the Central Bank may announce additional measures to stimulate the economy, which in turn will lead to dollar depreciation.

British Pound: The pound weakened today after data from the UK showed that the number of Mortgage Approvals fell to 44,200 K in June, compared with a forecasted value of 48K and 50,5K figure for May. The GBP / USD pair approached to $ 1.5671 level. There was also a report that revealed that the house prices fell for the first time this year and probably will decline further as the recession obstructs demand for buying homes.

American trading session:

Australian dollar: The Australian dollar rose against all its competitors on the publication of the report 
of Building Approvals which recorded that its number in June has increased thus grew the third in a row, as the reduction in interest rates stimulated buying interest. According to the report, the result of which strengthened by 10.2% versus previous 9.1% and forecasted -5.5% the strong growth in the number of new approvals and permits indicated an improvement in the housing market. Moreover, the published during the Asian session report of New Home Sales resulted growth in June by 2.8% to 6021 units, compared with an increase of 0.7% in May. Sales of the apartments rose by 15.7 % and private homes by 0.7%.

Gold: After a significant growth in the last week due to the optimism caused by the promises of the European Central Bank president Mario Draghi to do everything possible to save the Eurozone from collapse the price of Gold slightly declined today, however consolidated at the conquered levels and traded in the range of 1614.21 – 1624.87 dollars per troy ounce today, on Monday.

Oil: The Oil prices fell against the backdrop of rising concerns that central banks would not take any sufficient measures to support economic growth. The cost of the September WTI futures fell to $ 89.40 per barrel on the NYMEX today.


Technical analysis for 31.07


The pair’s resistance 1.23907, support 1.21813. 
Resistance: 1.23907, 1.25690, 1.26897 
Support: 1.21813, 1.19332, 1.16742 
The pair is testing Moving Average (200) 1.57483. 
Resistance: 1.58543, 1.60322, 1.62050 
Support: 1.56722, 1.54842, 1.53482 
MACD divergence warns of possible corrections. First aim is at 0.97427, second aim 0.96220. 
Resistance: 0.98512, 0.99248, 1.00168 
Support: 0.97427, 0.96220, 0.95047 
The pair has worked out Head and Shoulders and declined to 78.345. If the pair stays below this level the pair will decline to 77.439. 
Resistance: 78.345, 79.070, 79.707 
Support: 77.539, 76.463, 75.425 
The pair has risen to 1.05332. 
Resistance: 1.05332, 1.06164, 1.07005 
Support: 1.04407, 1.03535, 1.02558