Forex-Metal Daily Analysis -18/07/2012

Technical analysis for 18.07


The pair has worked out the Flag figure and declined to 1.21813. Now the par is rolling back to 1.23907. 
Resistance: 1.23907, 1.25690, 1.26897 
Support: 1.21813, 1.19332, 1.16790 
The pair is aiming to the Moving Average (100) at 1.57021. 
Resistance: 1.56722, 1.58543, 1.60322 
Support: 1.54842, 1.53482, 1.52063 
The pair is returning to 0.97427, if this level is broken the pair will declined to 0.96220. MACD divergence warns of possible corrections. First aim is at 0.96220. 
Resistance: 0.98512, 0.99248, 1.00168 
Support: 0.97427, 0.96220, 0.95074 
The pair is working out Head and Shoulders, first aim is at 79.070. Second aim is at 78.345. 
Resistance: 79.070, 79.707, 80.438 
Support: 78.345, 77.539, 76.463 
The pair is testing Moving Average (500) at 1.03053. 
Resistance: 1.03535, 1.04407, 1.05332 
Support: 1.02558, 1.01744, 1.00907


Market review for 17.07.12: The volatile session for many currencies due to the speech of U.S. Fed Chairman, Mr. Bernanke.


Asian and European trading sessions:

Euro: At the Asian session the Euro traded lower against its competitors on the eve of publication of the report on German ZEW Survey for the Economic Sentiment, which, as it was forecasted, may have shown the drop in investor confidence. The EUR / USD pair closed the session trading at the $ 1.2273 level. The Euro currency declined after the publication of the sentiment index in the business environment. In details, the result recorded a drop in July to -19.6 compared -16.9 in June but was better than forecasted value of -20 . The EUR / USD pair during the European session tried to recover to the highs of previous session, the region of $ 1.2315, however fell to the low of the $ 1.2274.

U.S. Dollar: On expectations and speculations that the Chairman of U.S. Federal Reserve Mr. Ben Bernanke in his today’s speech at the Senate would hint about the new economic stimulus programs, the U.S. dollar slightly dropped against most traded currencies. Also, the statement of the Federal Reserve of Kansas City Mr. Esther George, who said that the U.S. economy probably will not grow much faster than 2 % this year, added a bit of negative for the dollar trading dynamics.

Japanese Yen: The fact that the Minister of Finance of Japan, Mr. Azumi confirmed again the readiness of the Japanese officials to take decisive actions for weakening the national currency sent the USD / JPY pair to the 79.15 level. Today’s growth of the pair covered many of the pair’s losses which were occurred after three days of falling the dollar against the Yen where many of market participants earned speculatively, regardless the current situation, their capital.

Australian dollar: The Australian dollar rose against the background of the Asian stock indices as well as on publication of the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

American trading session:

U.S. Dollar: The words of Chairman, Mr. Bernanke who said that the risks for the economy have increased, and the statement that “the Fed is ready to take action if necessary” as well as “the recovery of the labor market is extremely slow” told for many market participants that the Fed is ready to take an action for supporting the growth of the economy. The first reaction of market participants was negative, because no specific signal on the new incentives for the U.S. economy was announced. The dollar rose at the beginning and the EUR/USD couple displayed high volatility; however, after the announcement it continued its previous downtrend.

Gold: The Gold prices fell during the speech because of the strengthening of the dollar. However, after the announcement the Gold prices were able to recover to the 1583.0 dollars per troy ounce.

Silver: The cost of the Silver futures had the same as Gold futures volatile session. The August Silver futures rose to $ 27.3 per troy ounce after falling earlier to the level of $ 26.8.

Oil: The Oil prices were strong today against a backdrop of positive statistics on Industrial Production in the United States and the outcome of the speech of Fed Chairman Mr. Ben Bernanke. The annual inflation in the U.S. in June did not go down and remained at 1.7% in May, which was better than forecasted change to 1.6%. And Consumer Prices in monthly terms for the month of July also did not change its value. The cost of the August futures on U.S. light crude oil, WTI recorded the $ 88.90 on the NYMEX today.