Forex-Metal Daily Analysis -17/07/2012

The dollar fell sharply on disappointing results of the U.S. Advance Retail Sales.


Asian and European trading sessions:

Euro: The Euro fell below 1.22 level against the dollar after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that she is not going to change her position in regard of easing the conditions for the five EU countries that have requested international financial assistance. Also, the weak results of the reports from EU contributed for the occurred pressure on the Euro currency during the European session. The rate of inflation in the euro zone, the CPI from June on yearly basis came out unchanged at 2.4 % in June as well as the result of CPI on monthly basis which in June recorded 1.6% change. Both indexes matched the forecasts. The investor confidence in Germany, however, in this month fell to -20 from -16.9 in June. The EUR / USD pair had headed down to $1.2175 area, yet after reaching this point, was able to rebound and cover all its previous losses during the second part of the European session.

British Pound: The pound has also changed his previous session downtrend where it was rapidly declining against the dollar on the eve of release of the report on Retail Sales in the U.S., which were expected to grow. The GBP / USD pair fell to 1.5516 level and tested it twice. Then after, the pair had strengthened to the highs of $1.5622 and tried to keep this conquered area for the rest of the session.

Australian and New Zealand dollar: These currencies managed to keep their previous levels and even move higher on the background of growth of Asian stock markets as well as on expectations that the Central Banks around the world will take new measures to support the growth of the global economy.

American trading session:

U.S. Dollar: The dollar fell sharply against other major currencies after the release of disappointing results of the U.S. Advance Retail Sales. Retail sales, which are falling already the third consecutive month in the U.S. , decreased today by 0.5 % which is by an amount of 401.5 billion dollars. Analysts had expected growth of sales in June up to 0.2 % compared with May. As the result, the greenback dropped steeply against its competitors on the background of reinforced speculation that the Fed will take further steps to strengthen economy. 

Gold: The Gold prices have covered their early session’s losses early after the released worse than expected results of U.S. Retail Sales. August gold futures rose to 1594.8 dollars per troy ounce today on the COMEX.

Euro: The Euro rose on the background of weakening of the dollar due to the negative results of published today report on Retail Sales. Also, the support for the euro had earlier statistics on Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a., which rose in May to 6.3 billion Euros from the revised April rate of 4.5 billion Euros and analysts forecasts of 5.0 billion Euros.

Oil: The Oil become more expensive against the background of weak Retail Sales report. The August WTI futures price strengthened to the $ 88.44 per barrel on the NYMEX today.


Technical analysis for 17.07


The pair has worked out the Flag figure and declined to 1.21813. Now the par is rolling back to 1.23907. 
Resistance: 1.23907, 1.25690, 1.26897 
Support: 1.21813, 1.19332, 1.16790 
The pair worked out Head and Shoulders. The pair is aiming to the Moving Average (100) at 1.57021. 
Resistance: 1.56722, 1.58543, 1.60322 
Support: 1.54842, 1.53482, 1.52063 
The pair is returning to 0.97427, if this level is broken the pair will declined to 0.96220. MACD divergence warns of possible corrections. First aim is at 0.96220. 
Resistance: 0.98512, 0.99248, 1.00168 
Support: 0.97427, 0.96220, 0.95074 
The pair is working out Head and Shoulders, first aim is at 79.070. Second aim is at 78.345. 
Resistance: 79.070, 79.707, 80.438 
Support: 78.345, 77.539, 76.463 
The pair is testing Moving Average (500) at 1.03053. 
Resistance: 1.03535, 1.04407, 1.05332 
Support: 1.02558, 1.01744, 1.00907