Forex-Metal Daily Analysis -21/06/2012

The FOMC meeting results: the rate kept at 0-0.25 %, the “Twist” program extended with $267 billion.


Asian and European trading sessions:

Euro: At the Asian session the euro currency was traded slightly higher against almost all its competitors in anticipation of tomorrow’s auction of government bonds of Spain. The previous auction which was conducted on June 18 showed a growth of the Spanish securities’ yield issued for 10 -year-old period to 7.29 %. The yield fell a bit after but still remained above 7% mark which considered as a very high and critical. The securities which maturities in 2014, 2015 and 2017 will be placed on tomorrow’s auction. The EUR / USD pair tested the level of $1.2690 during the Asian session and then continued climbing to the highs of the last week $1.2720 on the European session.

U.S. Dollar: The expectation of the results of the finishing today a two-day’s meeting of heads of the Federal Reserve provided some pressure on the currency. Demand for the dollar was limited because many market participants were awaited to hear an announcement about new measures like a new round of quantitative easing for stimulating the United States economic growth.

British Pound: The GBP / USD pair was traded between $ 1.5717 -$ 1.5744 during the Asian session. On the backdrop of publication of the protocol of the last meeting of the Committee on Monetary Policy Bank of England the pound steeply fell against the dollar yet quickly rebounded after. The published protocol showed that the number of committee members who advocate for increased program of asset purchases has increased. 
There were also economic statistics on the UK labor market published today, which had not any significant impact on the British currency trading dynamics. The Claimant Count resulted 4.9% and the Unemployment Rate recorded 8.2 % as it was expected. The negative came from the published report of Jobless Claims Change which recorded an increase in the number of jobless claims applications for employment by 8.1K, while was expected a decline by 3.1K. The GBP / USD pair, however, updated its yesterday’s high, reaching $ 1.5776 area.

New Zealand dollar: The New Zealand dollar fell on the background of publication of the government report today which recorded the country’s current account deficit over the past 3 months at 4.8% of GDP, against 4.2 % in the previous quarter. At the same time, the Gross Domestic Product showed a growth at the first quarter of 2012 (YoY) to the 2.4% versus forecasted 1.3% and leaded market participants to open buy positions on currency.

American trading session:

Euro: The EUR/USD pair as usual had volatile fluctuations while the announcement of the results of a two-day meeting of the FOMC. Today the Fed decided to keep rates within the range of 0-0.25 % and the operation called “Twist” aimed to lowering long-term interest rates by selling short-term bonds has been extended to the end of the 2012 year with approximately buying amount of 267 billion dollars. Also, the statements of the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel about the discussions of purchases of the stabilization fund bond provided some pressure on the currency and helped the euro to update daily lows against the dollar.

U.S. Dollar: The Dollar came under pressure on the background of the growth of the stock markets. Currency declined against its major competitors.

Japanese Yen: After a brief recovery on the background of the Fed decision the yen resumed its decline against other traded currencies. The reason for the continuation of the downtrend was information that the Japanese lawmakers were close to reach an agreement on tax measures aimed to the lowering rate of the national currency.

Gold: The Gold prices also had a volatile session today as investors were waiting the U.S. Federal Reserve statement on the results of a two-day meeting. The June gold futures on the COMEX today fell to 1590.6 while the publication then jumped to the level of $1620 dollars per troy ounce.

Silver: The Silver futures closed this day at $27.98 per troy ounce mark.

Oil: On Wednesday the U.S. Department of Energy announced that for the week ended June 15 the amount of Oil in inventories grew up by 2.86 million barrels, or 0.7 % – to 387, 3 million barrels versus the analyst’s forecasts of a decline by 1.3 million barrels. The cost of the WTI July futures today declined to $ 80.85 per barrel today on the NYMEX.


Technical analysis for 21.06


The pair is trying to rise to the Moving Average (100) at 1.28630. 
Resistance: 1.26897, 1.28630, 1.30277 
Support: 1.25690, 1.23907, 1.21813 
The pair has tested Moving Average and rolled back to 1.56722. 
Resistance: 1.58543, 1.60322, 1.62050 
Support: 1.56722, 1.54842, 1.53482 
The pair stays below 0.95074, it may bring pair to decline to 0.93949. 
Resistance: 0.95074, 0.96220, 0.97427 
Support: 0.93949, 0.93069, 0.92026 
The pair has risen to the Moving Average (100) at 79.707. 
Resistance: 79.707, 80.438, 81.399 
Support: 79.070, 78.345, 77.539 
The pair has tested Moving Average (200) and rolling back to 1.00907. 
Resistance: 1.01744, 1.02558, 1.03535 
Support: 1.00907, 1.00067, 0.99207