forex-Metal Market review for 11 – 15.10, 2010

The greenback was under serious pressure during the whole week and the EUR/USD pair has reached new maximums. On Monday the euro continued to trade around its 8-months maximums against the greenback. According to the experts’ opinion, the euro was overbought, and that the rate correction could be expected. The euro was also pressured after the release of the news from China, where the deposit reserve requirements for the 6 large banks were increased for 0.5%. Therefore, the EUR/USD rate showed some decrease to the level of $1.3940.
The general weakening of the US dollar continued to render support to the growing oil prices. The rate reached $83.40 mark per barrel on Monday. The yellow metal was trading around its historical maximums of $1353.60 mark per ounce as well. On Tuesday the EUR/USD pair slipped as low as the $1.3775 mark, as investors showed less demand for the high-risk assets.  Later on the euro rate returned to the $1.3820 level. According to some experts’ opinion, the euro was overbought, and Tuesday saw just the technical correction rather than had any specific tendency. On that day all market participants were pressured by expectations for the results of the FRS meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee was scheduled to release its policy meeting minutes at 18:00 GMT. According to the speculations, the FRS would not give any specific ruling for the further quantitative easing measures. The FOMC members did not have the singe opinion on the necessary urgent measures aimed to support the economy rehabilitation. The GBP/USD pair also decreased to $1.5793 minimums during the European trading session. The published on Tuesday UK fundamentals showed better than expected results. The UK retail prices showed increased levels for September, but were below the previous month figures. The core consumer price index turned out to be 2.7%, which was still below the previous level of 2.8%. According to the released minutes of the FOMC meeting, most of the FOMC members were suggesting the additional economy stimulating measures. But there was no unified opinion expressed. On Wednesday the expectations for the release of the strong European statistics pushed the EUR/USD rate to the maximums of $1.3982. The Euro-zone industrial production indeed showed growth for 1.0% against the expected 0.8%. Meanwhile the GBP/USD pair showed minimums at the $1.5770 mark. Maximums were reached at the level of $1.5886. The released on the same day UK jobless claims for September showed unexpected growth for 5.3K against the increase of 4.5K. Nevertheless, the risk appetite growth rendered considerable support to the sterling.The Australian fundamentals, which were released on Tuesday, supported the Australian dollar during the Wednesday trading. The Westpac Consumer confidence index for October increased to 117.0 compared to the 113.2 last month. The AUD/USD maximum was set at the $0.9880 mark.Asian stock markets’ growth resulted in a weakening of the yen, which stepped back from its previously reached maximums. Speculations, that Asian economy was rehabilitating, reinforced.  The Japanese statistics, which was published on Tuesday, was positive. The machine orders for August grew for 10.1%, when the forecasted level was at -3.9%.  Therefore, the demand for the save haven currencies, such as Japanese yen and American dollar, dropped. On Wednesday gold renewed its historical maximum at the level of $1373.65 per ounce.The released on Wednesday New-Zealand retail sales report for August showed 0.0% against the forecasted growth for 0.3%. As a result, the New-Zealand dollar rate fell. On Thursday the EUR/USD pair reached the$1,4121 peak. The greenback continued to drop against its major currency counterparts. According to the experts’ opinion, market participants face uncertainty regarding further actions of the FRS.  The experts forecast that the greenback would carry the negative dynamics to the end of the week as well.The GBP/USD pair managed to grow to the level of $1,6066. On the same day the USD/JPY rate dropped to the level ofY80,85 mark, its 15-year minimums.The Australian dollar continued to grow against the greenback and has reached its maximums of the year 1983.  As the prices for raw materials increased, the Canadian dollar grew against the US dollar higher. The US dollar was pressured even more by the released US mixed economic outlook on Thursday. The initial jobless claims grew for 462K from the previous figure of 449K. At the same time the Producer price index for September increased even higher for 4.0% when the forecasted growth was for 3.7%.The trade balance for September dropped to -$46.3B, which was below the expectations of -$44.0B.On Friday the EUR/USD reached its maximums at the $1.4159 mark after the speech of Ben Bernanke, who mentioned that the FRS would continue its politic of economic stimulation.  The GBP/USD pair also grew to its maximums of $1.6105. But both pairs dropped by the end of the day, and the EUR/USD closed the week at the level of below the $1.4100 mark. And the sterling also decreased to the $1.6000. Weekly technical analysis for 18 – 22.10 (43/2010) EURUSDThe pair has risen to Fibonacci 23.6% and rolling back. Higher is stronger level a trend line at 1.44835. Support maybe met at 1.37441. Resistance:   1.41130, 1.44835, 1.47697Support:  1. 37441, 1.33427, 1.28004GBPUSDThe pair is under pressure of Moving Average ( 100) and trendline at 1.59962. Once this level is broken the pair will rise to 1.64274. If the pair stays below 1.59962 the pair will decline to 1.57460.Resistance:  1.59962, 1.64274, 1.68504Support:  1.52523, 1.48532, 1.43343USDCHFThe pair has reached support 0.96526. Here is a strong level and bottom of 16.03.08. If the pair stays below 0.96526 the pair will drop to 0.93770. If the pair stays above 0.96526 the pair will rise to 0.99031. Strong level at 1.01369 trend line.  Resistance:  0.99031, 1.01369, 1.04060Support:  0.96525, 0.93770, 0.91074USDJPYThe pair is aiming to 80.244.Resistance:  83.330, 86.836, 90.909Support:  80.244, 76.535, 73.126AUDUSDThe pair has reached resistance at 1.00031. If the pair breaks support 0.97889 the pair will drop to 0.96010. Resistance: 1.00031, 1.02299, 1.04441Support:  0.97889, 0.94048, 0.89581