AUDNZD Descending Triangle (Dec 26, 2016)

AUDNZD formed lower highs and found support at the 1.0400 major psychological level, creating a descending triangle visible on its 1-hour chart. Price is on its way to test the bottom of the triangle and might be due for a bounce.


However, the 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. This suggests that a breakdown could happen and take the pair lower by around 300 pips or the same height as the chart formation. In addition, the moving averages line up with the triangle resistance, adding to its strength as a ceiling.


Stochastic is indicating oversold conditions, which means that sellers are already tired and could allow buyers to regain control of price action. A break higher could lead to a 300-pip rally as well.


There were no reports from both Australia and New Zealand last Friday but economic reports have been stronger for the latter earlier in the week. New Zealand printed a stronger than expected GDP reading of 1.1% for Q3 versus the projected 0.8% growth figure.


In addition, RBNZ head Wheeler recently confirmed that they have no plans of lowering rates further anytime soon. He also hinted that they’re no longer as concerned about a strong Kiwi as they used to be.

On the other hand, the RBA minutes still noted that the appreciating AUD could complicate the transition going on in the economy. This suggests that the Australian central bank might continue to jawbone or even consider lowering interest rates in the future. Apart from that, the US-China tensions have been weighing on sentiment for the world’s second largest economy and Australia’s top trade partner.


By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way